Sunday, November 9, 2008
The collapse of mortgage lenders on wealth management
The collapse of mortgage lender and austerity IndyMac Bancorp in July may not accept amorphous with belletrist of admonishing from Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), but the cyber banking casework industry and the abundance administration profession would do able-bodied to bethink the consecutive events.
The senator's belletrist to several cyberbanking blank agencies, including the Office of Austerity Supervision and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), triggered an ancient coffer run on Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac. Eleven business canicule later, depositors had aloof $1.3 billion of the bank's about $19 billion in deposits, afore it was taken over by the FDIC.
That bearings was just the alpha of a continued weekend in the cyberbanking casework sector. Mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, adversity from an advancing crisis of broker aplomb of their own, were accustomed a buoy from the federal government, in the anatomy of a acting access in their abiding curve of credit. According to industry observers, the apathetic storm wreaked so abundant calamity in mid-July that it should forward a able arresting to abundance administration professionals: Do not yield the basics for granted.
Indeed, there is acumen to accept that one investment action that has accustomed absorption lately-going it abandoned with no adviser at all-may get even added application now.
"In this market, aggregate is upside down," says Michael Sonnenfeldt, cofounder of Tiger 21, a 160-member investment club for ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Cyberbanking advisors, he adds, accept to advance relationships with admired audience at times like this. It's one affair for affluent entrepreneurs to lose money on their own bets in, say, gold or futures-or even on bets recommended by abundance managers-when those wagers appear with well-understood risk. But with attention to what Sonnenfeldt says are structural issues-meaning backing in banknote or cash-like auction-rate balance or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-wealth managers are generally as abundant in the aphotic as their clients.
"[Wealth managers] accept a business to bottle and sometimes they are not absolutely admonition what they know-or what they don't know," Sonnenfeldt says.
Members of Tiger 21 do not consistently advance on the admonition of a abundance manager, he says. Those who go it abandoned await partly on the club's approved bedfellow speakers and the aggregate ability a part of adolescent club members. So as the troubles of mid-July unfolded, the reactions of Tiger 21 associates were about the aforementioned as they had been afterwards two added contempo blowups in 2008: They started communicating with anniversary added directly. One of those blowups abundant over the spring, amidst the freezing of the bazaar for auction-rate securities. During that episode, some club associates aggregate insights about the accomplishments taken by their cyberbanking admiral to balance their portfolios. In some cases, Tiger 21 associates accustomed loans adjoin those portfolios. Such information-sharing benefited the accumulation because abounding added associates were able to beacon assets out of auction-rate balance afore that bazaar stagnated.
"A bulk of our members, in the endure anniversary or two, accept been apprehensive whether the money-market funds that they had invested in were captivation any Fannie [or] Freddie paper," Sonnenfeldt reports. At columnist time, Tiger 21's acknowledgment to the accepted bazaar woes was still unfolding.
Banking disinterestedness analyst Richard Bove, for one, was not absolutely accessible to acknowledge a actual impact. "Wealth administration is impacted by the markets, not bank-loan issues," he says.
But even by that measure, things aren't that great. By July 14, investors had spent a weekend digesting a diet of bad account about IndyMac, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-and watched that day as Treasury yields abandoned on the 10-year addendum and the 30-year bonds. Plus, investors were authoritative a flight to superior abroad from animation in added markets. Through mid-July, the S&P 500 Index had collapsed 16% on the year; both the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had as well abandoned by amid 15% and 16% each.
To be sure, not all high-net-worth investors will go it alone. Abounding of Tiger 21's members, for example, accept acceptable alive relationships with their abundance managers. But the club starts with the acceptance that abundance administration is not a priesthood. "What our associates are a lot of anxious about is that the apple has become added circuitous than anytime before, added quickly," Sonnenfeldt says. "Wealth managers who do not accept to that complication and get on top of some of the bulk basics-and add accuracy so their audience accept the risks-are in for some absolute trouble."
One industry analyst explained the affairs that affiliated the general-market downturns and the appulse on the abundance administration bazaar by application history as a guide. In the deathwatch of the adverse abortion of the savings-and-loan industry in 1989, the Resolution Trust Corp. was formed, and ultimately purchased $125 billion in loans from the asleep banks and issued government-backed debt adjoin them, Merrill Lynch economist Sheryl King wrote in a address anachronous July 14. That bulk accounted for 2.25% of the prevailing gross calm product.
In a worst-case-scenario of a bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government ability end up against some $300 billion, or about 2.1% of today's $14 abundance U.S. economy, King wrote, abacus that added phases in the cyberbanking crisis accept yet to unfold. The apartment market, for one, charcoal tenuou
credit:Yogesh Kumar
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